A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
